Regime Desk

Observation only. Price-rule snapshot as of 2026-09-16. No edge claimed. Not investment advice.

Daily brief

asof 2026-09-16 · price_rule_snapshot · rule price-agreement-v1

Price-rule snapshot. Not a proven edge.

Desk call · residual-fade-v0 · 2026-09-16

No residual setup. Chart and residual do not agree. Do nothing versus the S&P.

Frozen sketch. Call only when the beta-adjusted residual and the relative chart agree. Not a proven edge. yfinance price-geometry family is NO_EDGE/PARKED. Stand-aside until a method PASSes.

Relative rotation vs SPY

asof 2026-09-16 · click a name

Weakening

Energy XLE

Leading

Nasdaq 100 QQQTechnology XLKCommunication XLCOil and gas explorers XOPIG credit LQDHigh yield HYGUS dollar UUP

Lagging

Russell 2000 IWMConsumer discretionary XLYConsumer staples XLPIndustrials XLIMaterials XLBUtilities XLUReal estate XLREBiotech XBIGold miners GDX7-10y Treasuries IEFSilver SLVCopper miners COPXFinancials XLFHealthcare XLV20y Treasuries TLTGold GLDBitcoin BTC-USD

Improving

Semiconductors SMH
WEAKENINGLEADINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGQQQIWMXLKXLYXLPXLIXLBXLUXLREXLCXBIXOPGDXIEFLQDSLVCOPXXLFXLEXLVSMHTLTHYGGLDUUPBTC-USD

Closes

last 80 sessions through 2026-09-16
SPY+1.1%
SMH-5.3%
TLT-4.5%
GLD-5.3%
XLE+7.6%
BTC-USD+0.8%

Events / sentiment

not wired

No live Fed, CPI, NFP, fear/greed, or VIX feed on this build. Those numbers are omitted rather than shown as placeholders.

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Sector versus the S&P, or no setup.

The call

Residual and relative chart agree. Only these get a view.

No setup.

Looked tempting. Not calling.

Residual is stretched. Chart does not agree, so no trade versus the S&P.

  • Oil and gas explorers (XOP)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 2.12 · 20d residual +7.37% · beta -0.68 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Energy (XLE)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.69 · 20d residual +4.01% · beta -0.67 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Bitcoin (BTC)no setup

    Residual says buy the washout. Relative chart is not at the 20-day low. No agreement, no call.

    z -1.28 · 20d residual +18.62% · beta 0.9 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Consumer discretionary (XLY)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.25 · 20d residual -2.83% · beta 1.12 · 20-day relative low

Quiet

utilities (XLU), biotech (XBI), consumer staples (XLP), materials (XLB), communication (XLC), silver (SLV), semiconductors (SMH), russell 2000 (IWM), technology (XLK), gold (GLD), ig credit (LQD), us dollar (UUP), industrials (XLI), nasdaq 100 (QQQ), high yield (HYG), 20y treasuries (TLT), gold miners (GDX), 7-10y treasuries (IEF), copper miners (COPX), healthcare (XLV), financials (XLF), real estate (XLRE). Residual is not extreme. No view.

RS vs SPY

price snapshot, percent
Symbol1d5d20d
QQQ+0.03-1.62-1.78
IWM-0.43-2.31-5.43
XLK+0.10-2.10-0.91
XLY-0.63-2.03-5.31
XLP-0.48+0.34-2.63
XLI-0.08-1.79-8.10
XLB-0.73-2.00-2.74
XLU0.00-3.77-6.13
XLRE-0.60-1.38-4.08
XLC-0.90+1.96+2.28
XBI+0.10-3.26-3.70
XOP-3.96-1.65+3.48
GDX-1.41-6.71+4.33
IEF-0.10-1.27-2.37
LQD+0.16-0.82-1.31
SLV-0.83-6.04-0.68
COPX-0.47-11.63-1.61
XLF-1.62-1.98-3.30
XLE-2.88-1.96+0.55
XLV+0.07+0.71-1.15
SMH+0.64-5.00-4.25
TLT+0.21-1.04-0.96
HYG+0.05-0.71-1.40
GLD-0.61-2.88-1.71
UUP+0.64+1.50+0.92
BTC-USD+0.62-2.79+17.62
SPY-0.44-1.10-1.75