Regime Desk

Observation only. Price-rule snapshot as of 2026-09-09. No edge claimed. Not investment advice.

Daily brief

asof 2026-09-09 · price_rule_snapshot · rule price-agreement-v1

Price-rule snapshot. Not a proven edge.

Desk call · residual-fade-v0 · 2026-09-09

No residual setup. Chart and residual do not agree. Do nothing versus the S&P.

Frozen sketch. Call only when the beta-adjusted residual and the relative chart agree. Not a proven edge. Trade sector versus the S&P, or do nothing. Walk-forward later slice did not PASS.

Relative rotation vs SPY

asof 2026-09-09 · click a name

Weakening

Gold miners GDXIG credit LQDSilver SLVCopper miners COPX20y Treasuries TLTHigh yield HYG

Leading

Nasdaq 100 QQQTechnology XLKOil and gas explorers XOPEnergy XLESemiconductors SMHUS dollar UUPBitcoin BTC-USD

Lagging

Russell 2000 IWMConsumer discretionary XLYConsumer staples XLPIndustrials XLIMaterials XLBUtilities XLUReal estate XLRECommunication XLCBiotech XBI7-10y Treasuries IEFFinancials XLFHealthcare XLVGold GLD

Improving

WEAKENINGLEADINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGQQQIWMXLKXLYXLPXLIXLBXLUXLREXLCXBIXOPGDXIEFLQDSLVCOPXXLFXLEXLVSMHTLTHYGGLDUUPBTC-USD

Closes

last 80 sessions through 2026-09-09
SPY+3.1%
SMH+3.2%
TLT-2.3%
GLD-3.3%
XLE+9.9%
BTC-USD+24.4%

Events / sentiment

not wired

No live Fed, CPI, NFP, fear/greed, or VIX feed on this build. Those numbers are omitted rather than shown as placeholders.

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Sector versus the S&P, or no setup.

The call

Residual and relative chart agree. Only these get a view.

No setup.

Looked tempting. Not calling.

Residual is stretched. Chart does not agree, so no trade versus the S&P.

  • Copper miners (COPX)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 2.03 · 20d residual +7.61% · beta 2 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Healthcare (XLV)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.97 · 20d residual -0.84% · beta -0.25 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.63 · 20d residual +1.24% · beta 1.71 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Financials (XLF)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.57 · 20d residual -0.47% · beta 0.4 · 20-day relative low

  • Semiconductors (SMH)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.29 · 20d residual +3.52% · beta 2.71 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Technology (XLK)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.22 · 20d residual +2.81% · beta 2.04 · 20-day relative high

  • US dollar (UUP)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.18 · 20d residual -0.65% · beta -0.14 · mid-range on the relative chart

Quiet

utilities (XLU), gold (GLD), oil and gas explorers (XOP), bitcoin (BTC), consumer staples (XLP), materials (XLB), biotech (XBI), energy (XLE), ig credit (LQD), industrials (XLI), high yield (HYG), gold miners (GDX), communication (XLC), 20y treasuries (TLT), real estate (XLRE), russell 2000 (IWM), consumer discretionary (XLY), 7-10y treasuries (IEF), silver (SLV). Residual is not extreme. No view.

RS vs SPY

price snapshot, percent
Symbol1d5d20d
QQQ-0.29+1.23-0.30
IWM-1.37+0.02-3.44
XLK0.00+2.30+0.96
XLY-1.34-1.86-5.69
XLP-1.15-2.58-1.94
XLI-1.51-0.54-7.49
XLB-1.06-1.31-3.47
XLU-1.17+0.89-1.58
XLRE-1.12-1.43-1.52
XLC-0.62-0.05-0.40
XBI-1.57-2.46+0.83
XOP+0.57+1.19+9.33
GDX+1.08+5.07+10.38
IEF-0.28-0.22-1.04
LQD-0.16+0.09-0.64
SLV+2.27+4.83+3.71
COPX+0.94+6.76+7.54
XLF-0.42-0.24-1.28
XLE+0.83+0.83+7.19
XLV-0.33-2.96-0.85
SMH+0.10+5.33+0.24
TLT-0.57-0.17-0.56
HYG-0.18-0.15-0.67
GLD+0.91+1.66+0.60
UUP-0.04-0.82-0.57
BTC-USD-0.23+1.11+23.14
SPY-0.46+0.08-1.06