Regime Desk

Observation only. Price-rule snapshot as of 2026-09-25. No edge claimed. Not investment advice.

Daily brief

asof 2026-09-25 · price_rule_snapshot · rule price-agreement-v1

Price-rule snapshot. Not a proven edge.

Desk call · residual-fade-v0 · 2026-09-25

No residual setup. Chart and residual do not agree. Do nothing versus the S&P.

Frozen sketch. Call only when the beta-adjusted residual and the relative chart agree. Not a proven edge. yfinance price-geometry family is NO_EDGE/PARKED. Stand-aside until a method PASSes.

Relative rotation vs SPY

asof 2026-09-25 · click a name

Weakening

Leading

Nasdaq 100 QQQTechnology XLKHealthcare XLVSemiconductors SMHUS dollar UUPBitcoin BTC-USD

Lagging

Russell 2000 IWMConsumer discretionary XLYConsumer staples XLPIndustrials XLIMaterials XLBUtilities XLUReal estate XLRECommunication XLCBiotech XBIOil and gas explorers XOPGold miners GDX7-10y Treasuries IEFIG credit LQDSilver SLVCopper miners COPXFinancials XLFEnergy XLE20y Treasuries TLTHigh yield HYGGold GLD

Improving

WEAKENINGLEADINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGQQQIWMXLKXLYXLPXLIXLBXLUXLREXLCXBIXOPGDXIEFLQDSLVCOPXXLFXLEXLVSMHTLTHYGGLDUUPBTC-USD

Closes

last 80 sessions through 2026-09-25
SPY+2.3%
SMH-4.9%
TLT-7.0%
GLD-3.5%
XLE+5.7%
BTC-USD+31.3%

Events / sentiment

not wired

No live Fed, CPI, NFP, fear/greed, or VIX feed on this build. Those numbers are omitted rather than shown as placeholders.

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Sector versus the S&P, or no setup.

The call

Residual and relative chart agree. Only these get a view.

No setup.

Looked tempting. Not calling.

Residual is stretched. Chart does not agree, so no trade versus the S&P.

  • 20y Treasuries (TLT)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -2 · 20d residual -4.81% · beta 0.43 · 20-day relative low

  • IG credit (LQD)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.43 · 20d residual -3.49% · beta 0.3 · 20-day relative low

  • 7-10y Treasuries (IEF)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.13 · 20d residual -4.00% · beta 0.25 · 20-day relative low

  • Communication (XLC)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.03 · 20d residual +1.25% · beta 0.77 · mid-range on the relative chart

Quiet

materials (XLB), consumer staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV), biotech (XBI), utilities (XLU), industrials (XLI), high yield (HYG), russell 2000 (IWM), technology (XLK), financials (XLF), oil and gas explorers (XOP), gold miners (GDX), silver (SLV), energy (XLE), semiconductors (SMH), nasdaq 100 (QQQ), consumer discretionary (XLY), bitcoin (BTC), copper miners (COPX), gold (GLD), real estate (XLRE), us dollar (UUP). Residual is not extreme. No view.

RS vs SPY

price snapshot, percent
Symbol1d5d20d
QQQ+0.46+3.19+3.24
IWM+0.11-0.75-5.95
XLK+0.80+3.52+4.06
XLY+0.22-0.42-4.59
XLP+0.44-0.89-3.55
XLI+0.95+0.40-4.68
XLB+0.24-0.38-6.44
XLU+0.38-3.87-8.50
XLRE-0.22-2.28-6.94
XLC-0.90+1.94+1.39
XBI-0.65-1.08-7.85
XOP-1.39-4.78-2.14
GDX+0.56-2.73-10.43
IEF+0.35-0.88-3.46
LQD+0.06-1.42-3.30
SLV+0.90-2.99-7.38
COPX+0.56-0.63-10.08
XLF+0.57-1.83-5.25
XLE-0.89-3.53-0.40
XLV+0.49+1.37-0.51
SMH+1.01+5.86+5.86
TLT-0.13-2.38-4.58
HYG-0.04-0.85-2.52
GLD+0.44-1.93-6.91
UUP-0.24+0.81+2.14
BTC-USD-0.41+3.87+4.71
SPY+0.54+1.27+0.03