Daily brief

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Ranked versus the S&P 500, not in isolation.

Holding up vs the market

Best 20-day relative strength. Still not confirmed leaders.

• Industrials (XLI)+4.6% vs S&P

  Best relative strength on the board, momentum not there yet.

• Consumer discretionary (XLY)+4.1% vs S&P

  Same story as industrials. Stronger than tech, not a leader.

• Materials (XLB)+1.2% vs S&P

  Mildly ahead of the market. Not a call by itself.

Fading leaders

Still in the leading quadrant. Already losing to the S&P 500.

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)-0.5% vs S&P

  Barely ahead on structure, behind on the last 20 days.

• Technology (XLK)-1.7% vs S&P

  Old leadership. Do not add just because the map still says leading.

• Semiconductors (SMH)-1.8% vs S&P

  Same fade as technology, a bit worse.

• Utilities (XLU)-1.9% vs S&P

  Defensive bid is slipping with the old leaders.

Quiet middle

Little edge versus the market. No action.

• Financials (XLF)-0.3% vs S&P

  Flat versus the S&P 500.

• Healthcare (XLV)-0.4% vs S&P

  Soft, not broken.

• US dollar (UUP)-0.2% vs S&P

  Only sleeve marked improving, and only barely.

• Credit (HYG)-0.4% vs S&P

  High yield is not confirming a risk-on turn.

Weakest

Clear underperformance. This is what the desk call avoids.

• Energy (XLE)-7.8% vs S&P

  Weak versus every major sector, not just tech.

• Gold miners (GDX)-9.4% vs S&P

  Weaker than gold itself. Miners are the problem, not the metal.

• Oil and gas explorers (XOP)-10.2% vs S&P

  Worse than broad energy.

• Bitcoin (BTC)-19.4% vs S&P

  Worst relative strength on the board.