Regime Desk

Observation only. Price-rule snapshot as of 2026-09-04. No edge claimed. Not investment advice.

Daily brief

asof 2026-09-04 · price_rule_snapshot · rule price-agreement-v1

Price-rule snapshot. Not a proven edge.

Desk call

Industrials (XLI) and consumer discretionary (XLY) are holding up best versus the market, but they have not taken leadership. Do not chase technology (XLK) or semiconductors (SMH). That lead is already fading. Avoid energy (XLE), gold miners (GDX), and bitcoin (BTC).

Relative rotation vs SPY

asof 2026-09-08 · click a name
WEAKENINGLEADINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGBTC-USDCOPXGDXGLDHYGIEFIWMLQDQQQSLVSMHTLTUUPXBIXLBXLCXLEXLFXLIXLKXLPXLREXLUXLVXLYXOP

Closes

last 80 sessions through 2026-09-04
SPY+3.8%
SMH-1.0%
TLT-3.1%
GLD-5.5%
XLE+11.2%
BTC-USD+24.0%

Events / sentiment

not wired

No live Fed, CPI, NFP, fear/greed, or VIX feed on this build. Those numbers are omitted rather than shown as placeholders.

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Ranked versus the S&P 500, not in isolation.

Holding up vs the market

Best 20-day relative strength. Still not confirmed leaders.

Fading leaders

Still in the leading quadrant. Already losing to the S&P 500.

Quiet middle

Little edge versus the market. No action.

Weakest

Clear underperformance. This is what the desk call avoids.

RS vs SPY

price snapshot, percent
Symbol1d5d20d
TLT+0.56-0.92-0.27
HYG+0.32-0.84-0.17
UUP+0.64-0.46+0.43
SPY0.000.000.00
SMH+3.00+2.40-2.30
XLV-0.66+0.06+3.90
XLF-0.40-0.11+1.27
XLE-0.48+2.09+11.85
GLD-0.46-0.63+2.49
BTC-USD-1.59+2.25+23.29