Regime Desk

Observation only. Price-rule snapshot as of 2026-09-10. No edge claimed. Not investment advice.

Daily brief

asof 2026-09-10 · price_rule_snapshot · rule price-agreement-v1

Price-rule snapshot. Not a proven edge.

Desk call · residual-fade-v0 · 2026-09-10

No residual setup. Chart and residual do not agree. Do nothing versus the S&P.

Frozen sketch. Call only when the beta-adjusted residual and the relative chart agree. Not a proven edge. yfinance price-geometry family is NO_EDGE/PARKED. Stand-aside until a method PASSes.

Relative rotation vs SPY

asof 2026-09-10 · click a name
WEAKENINGLEADINGLAGGINGIMPROVINGQQQIWMXLKXLYXLPXLIXLBXLUXLREXLCXBIXOPGDXIEFLQDSLVCOPXXLFXLEXLVSMHTLTHYGGLDUUPBTC-USD

Closes

last 80 sessions through 2026-09-10
SPY+2.6%
SMH+2.6%
TLT-3.3%
GLD-5.3%
XLE+7.2%
BTC-USD-0.5%

Events / sentiment

not wired

No live Fed, CPI, NFP, fear/greed, or VIX feed on this build. Those numbers are omitted rather than shown as placeholders.

Daily brief

Same read as the desk call. Sector versus the S&P, or no setup.

The call

Residual and relative chart agree. Only these get a view.

No setup.

Looked tempting. Not calling.

Residual is stretched. Chart does not agree, so no trade versus the S&P.

  • Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.54 · 20d residual -2.59% · beta 0.82 · 20-day relative low

  • Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.39 · 20d residual -1.61% · beta -0.13 · 20-day relative low

  • Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.3 · 20d residual -1.61% · beta -0.09 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Silver (SLV)no setup

    Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z 1.22 · 20d residual +5.74% · beta 1.51 · mid-range on the relative chart

  • Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.17 · 20d residual -6.83% · beta 0.85 · 20-day relative low

  • Residual is stretched, but it is not stretched against its own residual trend. No call.

    z -1.15 · 20d residual -2.08% · beta -0.21 · mid-range on the relative chart

Quiet

nasdaq 100 (QQQ), materials (XLB), 20y treasuries (TLT), technology (XLK), gold (GLD), biotech (XBI), consumer discretionary (XLY), 7-10y treasuries (IEF), semiconductors (SMH), copper miners (COPX), gold miners (GDX), high yield (HYG), communication (XLC), bitcoin (BTC), healthcare (XLV), financials (XLF), oil and gas explorers (XOP), us dollar (UUP), energy (XLE), ig credit (LQD). Residual is not extreme. No view.

RS vs SPY

price snapshot, percent
Symbol1d5d20d
QQQ-1.06-0.08-2.07
IWM-1.01-2.15-4.96
XLK-1.41+0.88-1.93
XLY-0.44-2.52-5.03
XLP+0.05-2.85-2.34
XLI-0.72-1.29-8.25
XLB-1.23-4.14-3.46
XLU-0.98-0.35-3.01
XLRE-0.83-1.55-3.24
XLC+0.60-0.82+1.12
XBI-1.61-5.17-1.61
XOP+0.24+1.20+9.46
GDX-3.46-1.64+5.57
IEF-0.78-1.08-1.91
LQD-0.90-0.94-1.66
SLV-5.30-2.66-2.64
COPX-6.99-1.43+0.35
XLF-0.33-1.37-1.81
XLE-0.58-0.26+6.39
XLV-0.55-4.22-1.65
SMH-2.44+1.78-4.20
TLT-1.16-1.43-1.62
HYG-0.46-0.62-1.24
GLD-1.73-1.59-2.11
UUP+0.18-0.50-0.60
BTC-USD-2.16-0.95+20.77
SPY-0.60-0.96-1.90